The buildings we live and work in are quietly shaping the future of emissions worldwide. A new report from the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) lays out a blueprint for slashing emissions from the global building sector while making homes and offices smarter, cleaner, and more affordable to run.
The Hidden Climate Problem in Your Home
Buildings account for about a third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. That’s because most of them still rely on fossil fuels for heating, cooling, cooking, and even construction. If we keep building the way we do now, we’re locking in decades of carbon pollution. But the ETC report highlights a path forward—one where electrification, efficiency, and smarter materials can transform buildings into climate solutions rather than climate problems.
The Three Big Fixes for Buildings
1. Ditch Fossil Fuels for Electricity
Right now, gas and oil heating account for 8% of global emissions. The solution? Switch to electric heat pumps and induction stoves. If we power them with clean energy, emissions from building operations could drop to nearly zero by 2050. The report estimates that by then, 80% of the energy used in buildings could come from electricity.
2. Make Buildings Smarter and More Efficient
Energy demand from buildings could almost triple by 2050, thanks to increased cooling needs and the shift to electric heating. But better efficiency could cut this in half. Solutions include:
- Next-gen heat pumps, air conditioners, and appliances that use less power.
- Passive design techniques like insulation, reflective roofs, and energy-smart architecture.
- AI-driven building management systems that cut waste and optimize energy use.
3. Build (and Rebuild) with Low-Carbon Materials
Construction alone makes up 7% of global emissions each year. As urban areas expand—especially in Asia, Africa, and South America—building smarter will be critical. The report suggests:
- Decarbonizing steel, cement, and concrete production.
- Using sustainable materials like engineered timber.
- Extending building lifespans through renovation rather than demolition.
The Big Challenges (and How to Solve Them)
The shift to greener buildings won’t be easy. Retrofitting old buildings can be costly, and homeowners may hesitate to invest in upgrades like insulation or new windows. Governments will need to step up with policies like banning fossil fuel heating in new buildings and offering incentives for energy-saving improvements.
The report highlights that only a few nations, like the Netherlands, have announced firm plans to phase out fossil fuel appliances, while Denmark remains the sole country with explicit targets to shut down gas grids. The absence of robust building codes and policies addressing embodied carbon further exacerbates the challenge. To address this, policymakers must set short- and medium-term targets to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps, train installers, and enhance access to clean cooking solutions.
Key recommendations include:
- Ban fossil fuel heating and cooking in new buildings by 2025 and phase out their sale by 2035 in high-income nations and China.
- Establish clear phase-out timelines for gas grids, aiming for substantial reductions by the late 2030s and a complete transition by the 2040s.
- Enhance building codes and zoning policies to facilitate district heating and networked heat pumps.
“Decarbonizing the buildings sector is a story of many transitions. It’s vital for our climate goals and it’s an opportunity to improve living standards and reduce energy costs. Electric heating and cooking technologies will significantly improve air quality and have lower running costs than gas heating and traditional use of biomass. Cooling is essential to quality of life, especially as global warming intensifies due to man-made emissions. It is possible to achieve zero-emissions, efficient, and flexible homes with low-carbon building design techniques and technology that runs on clean electricity.” Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission said in a statement.
A Future of Zero-Carbon, High-Tech Buildings
The ETC report outlines seven key challenges facing the building industry and how technology and policy can address them. The message is clear: The future of buildings isn’t just about cutting emissions—it’s about designing spaces that are more intelligent, efficient, and comfortable for everyone.
With the right policies, investments, and innovations, the buildings of 2050 could be radically different from today’s—powered by clean energy, built with smarter materials, and optimized for a sustainable future.
“Unless we can radically decarbonize buildings we will fail to keep global warming under 1.5°C outlined in the Paris Accord. To do that we need to make changes all the way through the design, delivery and operation of buildings – from electrification of heating and passive cooling, to reducing embodied carbon emissions for new buildings and refurbishments,” Stephen Hill, Sustainability and Building Performance Expert at Arup, said. “This will require collaboration right across sector, between governments, industry bodies and private companies. We need to be ambitious, but if we get it right we can cut carbon, generate value for our economy and improve people’s quality of life through action like improving living conditions and reducing fuel poverty.”
I live in a rural area of Northern California. Our local electricity provider (PG&E) does not service a majority of the properties around us. It costs us $30k per power pole to get electricity service to our properties, and you can imagine how many poles there are per mile of line. We rely on solar power for lighting, generators for recharging batteries when the sun is not able to keep up (winter), wood for heat, and natural gas for cooking and hot water. The properties that do have electrical service experience prolonged blackouts around once a month year round, so we are grateful for our wood heat and gas appliances.
My wife works at a grid tie and offgrid solar installation company so we are very familiar with the limitations of off grid battery systems. You absolutely cannot run a fridge, heat pump, water heater and cook stove off of the amount of batteries and panels that a normal household can afford. Most off grid homes locally cannot run an electric coffee pot or toaster oven without degrading their battery life or kicking the generator on. I feel that these types of policies are developed by well intentioned engineers in urban environments that do not understand the impact these types of rules will have on people in rural areas. Banning gas appliances will absolutely degrade the lives of middle class poor, and indigenous people in rural areas that already pay more for energy than people in urban areas. There absolutely needs to be exceptions for these rules based on population density, economics, availability of electrical service etc..
According to the AB 1504 California Forest Ecosystem and Harvested Wood Product Carbon Inventory: 2019 Reporting Period each acre of mixed woodland forest in California sequester 2.5 metric tons of carbon per year. Most of our forested parcels locally are 40 acres in size (and larger) and support a single family. At 40 acres they can sequester up to 100 tons of carbon per year. A gallon of gasoline produces around 20 lbs of Co2e per gallon, so each 40 acre parcel can sequester 22 average cars worth of carbon per year. Please don’t punish rural people that are already paying taxes to maintain our forests as carbon sinks, but receive no benefit for the it. We are already seeing parcels get logged as families are forced off their properties for economic reasons.